Kadar inflasi tertinggi dalam masa 27 tahun
Sep 24, 08 7:50pm
Kadar inflasi telah melonjak ke paras 8.5 peratus pada bulan Ogos - yang tertinggi dalam tempoh 27 tahun - ekoran peningkatan harga makanan dan bahan api, demikian menurut angka rasmi yang dikeluarkan hari ini."Ia tinggi sedikit daripada yang dijangkakan, tetapi Bank Negara tidak akan menaikkan kadar faedah untuk memastikan pertumbuhan," kata Wan Suhaimi Saidi, ahli ekonomi dari Kenanga Investment Bank."Ia tinggi sedikit daripada jangkaan saya. Saya jangka 8.4 peratus. Saya tidak fikir kerajaan akan menaikkan kadar faedah penting. "Ia akan dikekalkan pada kadar 3.50 peratus sehingga akhir tahun untuk menyokong pertumbuhan," katanya kepada agensi berita AFP.Jabatan Perangkaan telah menyemak semula dengan menurunkan angka inflasi bagi bulan Julai kepada 8.3 peratus. Ia sebelum ini meletakkan kadarnya pada 8.5 peratus.Menurutnya, kos makanan dan minuman bukan alkohol meningkat 11.7 peratus dalam bulan Ogos, berbanding dengan setahun yang lalu. Kadar inflasi yang tinggi sudahpun menjejaskan pengguna dan mendorong ramai rakyat Malaysia mengurangkan perbelanjaan mereka bagi makanan."Peningkatan (kadar inflasi bagi bulan Ogos) ditunjukkan dalam kumpulan-kumpulan terpilih utama, iaitu makanan dan minuman bukan alkohol," katanya dalam satu kenyataan.Data bulan Ogos menunjukkan peningkatan harga bagi kebanyakan kategori, termasuk pengangkutan yang melonjak 21.8 peratus, dan restoran dan hotel yang meningkat 6.5 peratus.Kerajaan telah menaikkan harga minyak sebanyak 41 peratus dalam bulan Jun, sebagai langkah untuk mengurangkan peningkatan kos subsidi, tetapi telah membayangkan bahawa kadar harga boleh diturunkan tidak lama lagi.Inflasi kekal tinggiSelepas mengumumkan Indeks Harga Pengguna (CPI) bagi bulan Ogos, Menteri Perdagangan Dalam Negeri dan Hal Ehwal Pengguna, Datuk Shahrir Abdul Samad berkata, beliau tidak menjangka CPI bagi bulan September akan lebih rendah."Walaupun, kesan sepenuhnya pengurangan harga petrol dalam bulan Ogos dan sekarang belum diambilkira sepenuhnya, CPI bagi bulan September mungkin tidak lebih rendah."Harga petrol yang rendah dijangka dijangka akan diimbangi oleh peningkatan perbelanjaan semasa cuti hari raya dan 30 surcaj bagi pengangkutan awam," kata Shahrir.Bagaimanapun, beliau tidak menjangka CPI telahpun sampai ke paras puncaknya.Shahrir berkata, kadar inflasi nampak telah stabil ekoran peningkatan bulan ke bulan hanya 0.2 peratus.Bagaimanapun, kadar purata inflasi bagi tahun ini dijangka di sekitar 4.8 peratus.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Harga minyak turun lagi 10 sen
Sep 24, 08 2:44pm
Kerajaan hari ini mengumumkan penurunan sebanyak 10 sen lagi harga minyak berkuatkuasa esok.
Berikutan itu, harga minyak petrol jenis RON 97 kini turun kepada RM2.45 seliter manakala harga RON 92 pula turun kepada RM2.30 seliter.
Kerajaan juga mengumumkan pengurangan minyak diesel, juga sebanyak 10 sen, kepada RM2.40 seliter.
Ketika mengumumkan penurunan harga minyak tersebut, Perdana Menteri, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi berkata, ia diputuskan dalam mesyuarat jemaah menteri hari ini."Keputusan ini diambil setelah mengambil kira harga purata minyak dunia untuk tempoh sebulan terakhir ini," katanya dalam satu kenyataan petang ini.Harga-harga berkenaan, tambah beliau, ditentukan dengan mengambil kira harga sebenar petrol daripada 1 September hingga 22 September lalu.Abdullah berkata, untuk tempoh sebulan terakhir ini, harga minyak dunia telah mengalami turun naik yang ketara. "Namun secara purata, ia telah menurun sedikit berbanding harga purata sebelumnya. Namun begitu, nilai ringgit berbanding dolar Amerika pula menyusut sepanjang tempoh yang sama. "Oleh itu, mengaplikasikan formula yang digunapakai oleh kerajaan dalam menentukan harga runcit sebelum ini, pengurangan sebanyak 10 sen ini merupakan nilai pengurangan maksimum yang dapat diberikan oleh Kerajaan."Pelarasan harga minyak ini juga merupakan pelarasan harga yang kedua dilakukan oleh Kerajaan setelah pelarasan pertama dilakukan pada 23 Ogos yang lalu," katanya.Sebelum ini, kerajaan telah menurunkan harga minyak sebanyak 15 sen.Sehubungan, perdana berkata, kerajaan berharap penurunan harga minyak yang berkuatkuasa esok, akan dapat meringankan beban orang ramai, terutamanya dalam menyambut hari raya Aidilfitri.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Buffett's firm invests in Goldman
Berkshire Hathaway, the company owned by US investment guru Warren Buffett, has bought $5bn (£2.7bn) worth of Goldman Sachs shares.
Mr Buffett, the world's most famous investor, said Goldman was an "exceptional institution".
Hit by the crisis that has engulfed other major US financial institutions, it was forced to change its status from an investment bank this week.
Goldman Sachs said the deal would bolster its finances.
Berkshire Hathaway is buying $5bn of preferred stock bearing a 10% annual interest rate.
It could increase its holding of Goldman shares as under the terms of the deal, it has the option of buying $5bn of common stock for $115 per share at any time in the next five years.
In addition, Goldman Sachs said it was raising at least $2.5 billion in common equity in a public offering.
Goldman said it was pleased that Warren Buffett had made such a significant investment.
"We view it as a strong validation of our client franchise and future prospects," said chairman and chief executive Lloyd C. Blankfein.
"This investment will further bolster our strong capitalisation and liquidity position."
Story from BBC NEWS:
Buffett to take $5bn stake in Goldman
By Henny Sender and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 23 2008 22:58 Last updated: September 24 2008 00:41
Goldman Sachs is to raise $7.5bn from Warren Buffett and other investors, fortifying its financial base as it begins its transition from Wall Street broker to Federal Reserve-regulated bank holding company.
Goldman said late on Tuesday that Mr Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had reached an agreement to buy $5bn of preferred stock in a private placement and to receive warrants enabling it to purchase another $5bn of common stock. Goldman also said it planned to sell $2.5bn in common stock through a public offer.
The deal appears to represent a change in strategy for Mr Buffett, 78, who has avoided investing in Wall Street firms since helping to rescue Salomon Brothers nearly two decades ago.
The deal seems to reward Berkshire handsomely. The preferred stock will pay a dividend of 10 per cent. Although it can be bought back by Goldman at any time, the bank would have to pay Berkshire a 10 per cent premium to do so. The warrants – which can be exercised over a five-year period – have a strike price of $115, well below Goldman’s closing price of $125.05 yesterday.
The shares rose in after-market trading – a reflection of the regard Mr Buffett enjoys in the markets. Insiders said raising money from Mr Buffett represented an endorsement during a period when cash is king on Wall Street.
The $7.5bn boost in equity comes a day after Goldman received an accelerated approval from the Federal Reserve to restructure itself as a bank holding company. The transition from pure investment bank – which could operate outside the regulatory purview of the Fed – to bank holding company was designed to allay investor concerns about the future of Goldman’s business model.
As recently as Monday, senior Goldman staffers had maintained they had no need for new equity unless the new capital helped served a strategic purpose.
Sovereign wealth funds such as the Kuwait Investment Authority have long sought a stake in Goldman. In recent days, there has also been market speculation that Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, in which Goldman has a minority stake, was considering making a reciprocal investment in Goldman.
“We are pleased that, given our longstanding relationship, Warren Buffett, arguably the world’s most admired and successful investor, has decided to make such a significant investment in Goldman Sachs,” said Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive of Goldman . “This investment will further bolster our strong capitalisation and liquidity position.”
“Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution,” said Mr Buffett. “It has an unrivalled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
By Henny Sender and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 23 2008 22:58 Last updated: September 24 2008 00:41
Goldman Sachs is to raise $7.5bn from Warren Buffett and other investors, fortifying its financial base as it begins its transition from Wall Street broker to Federal Reserve-regulated bank holding company.
Goldman said late on Tuesday that Mr Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway had reached an agreement to buy $5bn of preferred stock in a private placement and to receive warrants enabling it to purchase another $5bn of common stock. Goldman also said it planned to sell $2.5bn in common stock through a public offer.
The deal appears to represent a change in strategy for Mr Buffett, 78, who has avoided investing in Wall Street firms since helping to rescue Salomon Brothers nearly two decades ago.
The deal seems to reward Berkshire handsomely. The preferred stock will pay a dividend of 10 per cent. Although it can be bought back by Goldman at any time, the bank would have to pay Berkshire a 10 per cent premium to do so. The warrants – which can be exercised over a five-year period – have a strike price of $115, well below Goldman’s closing price of $125.05 yesterday.
The shares rose in after-market trading – a reflection of the regard Mr Buffett enjoys in the markets. Insiders said raising money from Mr Buffett represented an endorsement during a period when cash is king on Wall Street.
The $7.5bn boost in equity comes a day after Goldman received an accelerated approval from the Federal Reserve to restructure itself as a bank holding company. The transition from pure investment bank – which could operate outside the regulatory purview of the Fed – to bank holding company was designed to allay investor concerns about the future of Goldman’s business model.
As recently as Monday, senior Goldman staffers had maintained they had no need for new equity unless the new capital helped served a strategic purpose.
Sovereign wealth funds such as the Kuwait Investment Authority have long sought a stake in Goldman. In recent days, there has also been market speculation that Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, in which Goldman has a minority stake, was considering making a reciprocal investment in Goldman.
“We are pleased that, given our longstanding relationship, Warren Buffett, arguably the world’s most admired and successful investor, has decided to make such a significant investment in Goldman Sachs,” said Lloyd Blankfein, chief executive of Goldman . “This investment will further bolster our strong capitalisation and liquidity position.”
“Goldman Sachs is an exceptional institution,” said Mr Buffett. “It has an unrivalled global franchise, a proven and deep management team and the intellectual and financial capital to continue its track record of outperformance.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
AS menuju era kemuflisan?
Oleh AZNAN BAKAR(Di New York, Amerika Syarikat)
KIRA-KIRA 11 tahun lalu ketika negara-negara Asia seperti Thailand, Indonesia, Korea dan Malaysia dilanda kegawatan ekonomi, Amerika Syarikat (AS) yang merupakan pendokong sistem kapitalis menentang sebarang campur tangan kerajaan dalam membantu syarikat-syarikat yang bermasalah.
Pada AS segala-galanya perlu ditentukan oleh pasaran. Jika sesuatu ekonomi jatuh maka ia tidak boleh dihalang. Syarikat-syarikat berkepentingan nasional tidak boleh diselamatkan oleh kerajaan.
Sebaliknya biar pasaran yang menentukan termasuk membiarkan syarikat terbabit ditelan oleh gergasi luar terutama dari AS.
Ketika itu nasihat atau lebih dibaca sebagai amaran oleh AS kepada negara terbabit termasuk Malaysia ialah biar pasaran yang tentukan caranya, kerajaan jangan masuk campur.
Walaupun negara-negara itu terpaksa berhadapan dengan pelbagai kesukaran seperti kadar pengangguran yang tinggi, kemiskinan meningkat dan keadaan politik menjadi kucar kacir AS tetap bertegas mempertahankan sistem pasaran bebasnya.
Malah, negara kuasa besar itu juga dengan sewenang-wenang menggelar negara-negara terbabit sebagai muflis atau bankrap kerana terpaksa berhutang untuk mengatasi kegawatan ekonomi selain berhadapan dengan belanjawan defisit berbilion dolar.
Malaysia juga tidak terlepas, apabila ia ekonominya dikatakan sebagai bermasalah ekoran belanjawan defisit.
Tetapi hari ini di sebalik segala kebongkakan AS 11 tahun lalu, negara itu terpaksa berhadapan dengan realiti pasaran bebas yang diagung-agungkannya.
AS kini berhadapan dengan krisis kewangan antara yang terburuk dalam sejarahnya yang boleh mengheret kuasa ekonomi itu ke arah kemuflisan.
Walaupun pentadbiran Bush masih lagi mempertahankan ego kononnya ekonomi mereka masih baik, dan krisis yang membabitkan institusi kewangannya terkawal, tetapi hakikatnya ekonomi AS sedang berhadapan dengan masalah besar.
Pada hari ini syarikat-syarikat kapitalis gergasi yang menjadi kebanggaan AS dan ada antaranya berusia lebih 100 tahun tersungkur kerana pentadbiran dan pengurusan pelaburan yang tidak betul.
Firma sekuriti keempat terbesar di AS, Lehman Brothers yang pejabatnya gah tersergam di Time Square, New York kini muflis.
Sebelum itu AS terpaksa mengingkari peraturan ciptaannya sendiri apabila kerajaan mengambil alih syarikat insuransnya yang terbesar, American International Group Inc. (AIG) dengan memberikan pinjaman AS$85 bilion (RM289.9 bilion).
Krisis itu tidak berhenti begitu sahaja. Sejak dua minggu lalu kerajaan AS telah mengambil alih dua syarikat pembiaya pinjaman hartanah terbesar, Fannie Mae dan Freddie Mac. Sementara firma pelaburan terkenal Merrill Lynch telah dipaksa supaya dijual kepada Bank of America kerana diancam kemuflisan.
Kini hampir keseluruhan institusi kewangan di AS terutama yang terbabit dengan pembiayaan pembelian hartanah lumpuh dan pasaran kreditnya kini beku. Antara puncanya ialah pengurusan hutang dan pinjaman yang tidak terkawal hingga membebankan sektor kewangan negara itu.
Atas nama kepentingan rakyat dan demi memastikan rakyat AS terus mempunyai kediaman maka pentadbiran Bush telah meminta Kongres memperuntukan wang pembayar cukai sebanyak AS$700 bilion untuk membeli semua hutang dalam sektor hartanah bagi membolehkan institusi- institusi kewangan terbabit kembali bernafas dan pasaran kreditnya boleh dicairkan semula.
Peruntukan AS$700 bilion itu merupakan usaha kerajaan AS untuk menyelamat atau bailout institusi-institusi kewangannya yang nazak. Langkah itu pernah ditentang oleh AS 11 tahun lalu apabila kerajaan Malaysia mahu membantu syarikat-syarikat berkepentingan nasional menghadapi gelombang krisis ekonomi supaya ia tidak terlepas ke tangan kapitalis luar.
Jika 11 tahun lalu AS lantang menentang, tetapi hari ini itulah langkah yang diambilnya dengan alasan untuk kepentingan rakyat. Itulah alasan yang diberikan oleh Bush dalam memujuk Kongres meluluskan peruntukan AS$700 bilion itu. Sedang kerajaan Malaysia ketika melaksanakan langkah yang sama 11 tahun lalu juga demi kepentingan rakyat.
Tindakan AS itu ibarat meludah ke langit yang mana akhirnya ia jatuh ke muka sendiri. Jumlah AS$700 bilion itu merupakan angka yang cukup besar yang boleh mengheret negara kuasa besar itu ke kancah hutang yang terbesar dalam sejarahnya.
Jika sebelum ini AS melabelkan negara kecil yang berhadapan dengan beban hutang luar dan bajet defisit sebagai negara yang muflis, kini jika faktor dan kriteria itu diambil kira kuasa besar itu juga kini di ambang kemuflisan.
Pada masa kini AS mengalami belanjawan defisit kira-kira AS$3 trilion (RM2,386.98 bilion) setahun. Malah AS$700 juta yang diminta supaya diluluskan segera oleh Kongres dalam usaha untuk menyelamatkan institusi kewangannya turut menekan lagi kedudukan ekonominya secara keseluruhan.
Bersandiwara
Tetapi, sebagai kuasa besar AS tetap angkuh. Pentadbiran Bush tetap bersandiwara. Dalam keadaan ekonomi yang hampir runtuh itu, Bush tetap mendakwa kedudukan ekonomi mereka masih stabil dan mantap.
Jika bajet defisit itu diambil kira ditambah pula dengan kadar pengangguran mencecah tujuh peratus setahun dan disertai dengan krisis yang melanda institusi kewangannya kini, ekonomi AS sebenarnya cukup parah. Krisis itu ibarat meletakkan garam pada luka yang menjadikan ia lebih pedih dan berbisa.
Jika AS$700 bilion itu tidak diluluskan oleh Kongres, sektor hartanah di negara itu akan lumpuh kerana institusi terbabit tidak mampu lagi untuk memberikan pinjaman.
Untuk itu, penggubal dasar di AS kini bersengkang mata mencari penyelesaian kepada krisis itu.
Keadaan bertambah rumit apabila rakyat mempersoalkan hasrat pentadbiran Bush untuk menggunakan wang cukai mereka bagi mengambil alih hutang-hutang institusi kewangan terbabit.
Tetapi apa pilihan yang kerajaan AS ada? Yang penting sistem kewangannya perlu diselamatkan. Institusi ini perlu dipastikan dapat bergerak seperti biasa dan mampu berfungsi sewajarnya.
Caranya ialah dengan membebaskan mereka daripada hutang-hutang lapuk. Untuk itu kerajaan akan menggunakan AS$700 bilion wang rakyat untuk 'membeli' hutang-hutang tersebut.
Tetapi hakikat yang mungkin ramai tidak tahu ialah, cadangan kepada usaha menyelamat itu akan menyebabkan hutang yang ditanggung AS meningkat daripada AS$10.6 trilion (RM36.15 trilion) kepada AS$11.3 trilion (RM38.54 trilion).
Sebab itu para penganalisis menggelar usaha yang dilakukan oleh Washington itu sebagai ibu kepada segala usaha menyelamat atau mother of all bailouts dalam dunia ini.
Kebimbangan yang wujud ialah adakah AS$700 bilion (RM36.25 trilion) itu akan digunakan sewajar dan turut memberi manfaat kepada rakyat. Adakah betul jika AS$700 bilion itu diagih-agihkan pasaran kredit negara kembali cair dan institusi kewangannya pula mampu pulih.
Sebab itu, ahli-ahli Kongres pula mahukan jaminan agar peruntukan itu turut digunakan untuk membantu rakyat dengan istilah yang digunakan 'Main Street' di samping institusi kewangan gergasi di Wall Street yang hilang berbilion dolar kepada keputusan pelaburan yang dangkal.
Rancangan utama pelan menyelamat AS$700 bilion itu ialah untuk mengeluarkan hutang tidak berbayar daripada buku akaun institusi kewangan terbabit dengan harapan mereka dapat meneruskan operasi pinjaman.
Mother of all bailouts ini jika dicampur dengan kos kerajaan mengambil alih Fennie, Freddie dan AIG sebenarnya mencecah AS$1 trilio (RM3.41 trilion).
Apakah maknanya semua itu? Ia boleh ditafsirkan bahawa AS kini sedang menuju ke arah muflis kerana terpaksa menanggung hutang puluhan trilion dolar akibat pengurusan dan pelaburan oleh institusi kewangannya yang tidak cekap.
Kesimpulan ini dibuat berdasarkan kriteria yang digunakan oleh AS sendiri apabila dengan sewenang-wenang melabelkan negara kecil seperti Malaysia sebagai muflis ketika berhadapan dengan krisis kewangan.
Kini AS dikatakan sedang meninjau bantuan daripada Jepun dan China untuk membantunya.
Ia menggarapkan dua negara gergasi Asia itu dapat membeli aset dan menyuntik modal dalam institusi kewangannya supaya kembali bernafas dan seterusnya menggerakkan kembali sistem kewangannya yang hampir lumpuh.
Bahagian Rencana Utusan Malaysia 24/9/08
Oleh AZNAN BAKAR(Di New York, Amerika Syarikat)
KIRA-KIRA 11 tahun lalu ketika negara-negara Asia seperti Thailand, Indonesia, Korea dan Malaysia dilanda kegawatan ekonomi, Amerika Syarikat (AS) yang merupakan pendokong sistem kapitalis menentang sebarang campur tangan kerajaan dalam membantu syarikat-syarikat yang bermasalah.
Pada AS segala-galanya perlu ditentukan oleh pasaran. Jika sesuatu ekonomi jatuh maka ia tidak boleh dihalang. Syarikat-syarikat berkepentingan nasional tidak boleh diselamatkan oleh kerajaan.
Sebaliknya biar pasaran yang menentukan termasuk membiarkan syarikat terbabit ditelan oleh gergasi luar terutama dari AS.
Ketika itu nasihat atau lebih dibaca sebagai amaran oleh AS kepada negara terbabit termasuk Malaysia ialah biar pasaran yang tentukan caranya, kerajaan jangan masuk campur.
Walaupun negara-negara itu terpaksa berhadapan dengan pelbagai kesukaran seperti kadar pengangguran yang tinggi, kemiskinan meningkat dan keadaan politik menjadi kucar kacir AS tetap bertegas mempertahankan sistem pasaran bebasnya.
Malah, negara kuasa besar itu juga dengan sewenang-wenang menggelar negara-negara terbabit sebagai muflis atau bankrap kerana terpaksa berhutang untuk mengatasi kegawatan ekonomi selain berhadapan dengan belanjawan defisit berbilion dolar.
Malaysia juga tidak terlepas, apabila ia ekonominya dikatakan sebagai bermasalah ekoran belanjawan defisit.
Tetapi hari ini di sebalik segala kebongkakan AS 11 tahun lalu, negara itu terpaksa berhadapan dengan realiti pasaran bebas yang diagung-agungkannya.
AS kini berhadapan dengan krisis kewangan antara yang terburuk dalam sejarahnya yang boleh mengheret kuasa ekonomi itu ke arah kemuflisan.
Walaupun pentadbiran Bush masih lagi mempertahankan ego kononnya ekonomi mereka masih baik, dan krisis yang membabitkan institusi kewangannya terkawal, tetapi hakikatnya ekonomi AS sedang berhadapan dengan masalah besar.
Pada hari ini syarikat-syarikat kapitalis gergasi yang menjadi kebanggaan AS dan ada antaranya berusia lebih 100 tahun tersungkur kerana pentadbiran dan pengurusan pelaburan yang tidak betul.
Firma sekuriti keempat terbesar di AS, Lehman Brothers yang pejabatnya gah tersergam di Time Square, New York kini muflis.
Sebelum itu AS terpaksa mengingkari peraturan ciptaannya sendiri apabila kerajaan mengambil alih syarikat insuransnya yang terbesar, American International Group Inc. (AIG) dengan memberikan pinjaman AS$85 bilion (RM289.9 bilion).
Krisis itu tidak berhenti begitu sahaja. Sejak dua minggu lalu kerajaan AS telah mengambil alih dua syarikat pembiaya pinjaman hartanah terbesar, Fannie Mae dan Freddie Mac. Sementara firma pelaburan terkenal Merrill Lynch telah dipaksa supaya dijual kepada Bank of America kerana diancam kemuflisan.
Kini hampir keseluruhan institusi kewangan di AS terutama yang terbabit dengan pembiayaan pembelian hartanah lumpuh dan pasaran kreditnya kini beku. Antara puncanya ialah pengurusan hutang dan pinjaman yang tidak terkawal hingga membebankan sektor kewangan negara itu.
Atas nama kepentingan rakyat dan demi memastikan rakyat AS terus mempunyai kediaman maka pentadbiran Bush telah meminta Kongres memperuntukan wang pembayar cukai sebanyak AS$700 bilion untuk membeli semua hutang dalam sektor hartanah bagi membolehkan institusi- institusi kewangan terbabit kembali bernafas dan pasaran kreditnya boleh dicairkan semula.
Peruntukan AS$700 bilion itu merupakan usaha kerajaan AS untuk menyelamat atau bailout institusi-institusi kewangannya yang nazak. Langkah itu pernah ditentang oleh AS 11 tahun lalu apabila kerajaan Malaysia mahu membantu syarikat-syarikat berkepentingan nasional menghadapi gelombang krisis ekonomi supaya ia tidak terlepas ke tangan kapitalis luar.
Jika 11 tahun lalu AS lantang menentang, tetapi hari ini itulah langkah yang diambilnya dengan alasan untuk kepentingan rakyat. Itulah alasan yang diberikan oleh Bush dalam memujuk Kongres meluluskan peruntukan AS$700 bilion itu. Sedang kerajaan Malaysia ketika melaksanakan langkah yang sama 11 tahun lalu juga demi kepentingan rakyat.
Tindakan AS itu ibarat meludah ke langit yang mana akhirnya ia jatuh ke muka sendiri. Jumlah AS$700 bilion itu merupakan angka yang cukup besar yang boleh mengheret negara kuasa besar itu ke kancah hutang yang terbesar dalam sejarahnya.
Jika sebelum ini AS melabelkan negara kecil yang berhadapan dengan beban hutang luar dan bajet defisit sebagai negara yang muflis, kini jika faktor dan kriteria itu diambil kira kuasa besar itu juga kini di ambang kemuflisan.
Pada masa kini AS mengalami belanjawan defisit kira-kira AS$3 trilion (RM2,386.98 bilion) setahun. Malah AS$700 juta yang diminta supaya diluluskan segera oleh Kongres dalam usaha untuk menyelamatkan institusi kewangannya turut menekan lagi kedudukan ekonominya secara keseluruhan.
Bersandiwara
Tetapi, sebagai kuasa besar AS tetap angkuh. Pentadbiran Bush tetap bersandiwara. Dalam keadaan ekonomi yang hampir runtuh itu, Bush tetap mendakwa kedudukan ekonomi mereka masih stabil dan mantap.
Jika bajet defisit itu diambil kira ditambah pula dengan kadar pengangguran mencecah tujuh peratus setahun dan disertai dengan krisis yang melanda institusi kewangannya kini, ekonomi AS sebenarnya cukup parah. Krisis itu ibarat meletakkan garam pada luka yang menjadikan ia lebih pedih dan berbisa.
Jika AS$700 bilion itu tidak diluluskan oleh Kongres, sektor hartanah di negara itu akan lumpuh kerana institusi terbabit tidak mampu lagi untuk memberikan pinjaman.
Untuk itu, penggubal dasar di AS kini bersengkang mata mencari penyelesaian kepada krisis itu.
Keadaan bertambah rumit apabila rakyat mempersoalkan hasrat pentadbiran Bush untuk menggunakan wang cukai mereka bagi mengambil alih hutang-hutang institusi kewangan terbabit.
Tetapi apa pilihan yang kerajaan AS ada? Yang penting sistem kewangannya perlu diselamatkan. Institusi ini perlu dipastikan dapat bergerak seperti biasa dan mampu berfungsi sewajarnya.
Caranya ialah dengan membebaskan mereka daripada hutang-hutang lapuk. Untuk itu kerajaan akan menggunakan AS$700 bilion wang rakyat untuk 'membeli' hutang-hutang tersebut.
Tetapi hakikat yang mungkin ramai tidak tahu ialah, cadangan kepada usaha menyelamat itu akan menyebabkan hutang yang ditanggung AS meningkat daripada AS$10.6 trilion (RM36.15 trilion) kepada AS$11.3 trilion (RM38.54 trilion).
Sebab itu para penganalisis menggelar usaha yang dilakukan oleh Washington itu sebagai ibu kepada segala usaha menyelamat atau mother of all bailouts dalam dunia ini.
Kebimbangan yang wujud ialah adakah AS$700 bilion (RM36.25 trilion) itu akan digunakan sewajar dan turut memberi manfaat kepada rakyat. Adakah betul jika AS$700 bilion itu diagih-agihkan pasaran kredit negara kembali cair dan institusi kewangannya pula mampu pulih.
Sebab itu, ahli-ahli Kongres pula mahukan jaminan agar peruntukan itu turut digunakan untuk membantu rakyat dengan istilah yang digunakan 'Main Street' di samping institusi kewangan gergasi di Wall Street yang hilang berbilion dolar kepada keputusan pelaburan yang dangkal.
Rancangan utama pelan menyelamat AS$700 bilion itu ialah untuk mengeluarkan hutang tidak berbayar daripada buku akaun institusi kewangan terbabit dengan harapan mereka dapat meneruskan operasi pinjaman.
Mother of all bailouts ini jika dicampur dengan kos kerajaan mengambil alih Fennie, Freddie dan AIG sebenarnya mencecah AS$1 trilio (RM3.41 trilion).
Apakah maknanya semua itu? Ia boleh ditafsirkan bahawa AS kini sedang menuju ke arah muflis kerana terpaksa menanggung hutang puluhan trilion dolar akibat pengurusan dan pelaburan oleh institusi kewangannya yang tidak cekap.
Kesimpulan ini dibuat berdasarkan kriteria yang digunakan oleh AS sendiri apabila dengan sewenang-wenang melabelkan negara kecil seperti Malaysia sebagai muflis ketika berhadapan dengan krisis kewangan.
Kini AS dikatakan sedang meninjau bantuan daripada Jepun dan China untuk membantunya.
Ia menggarapkan dua negara gergasi Asia itu dapat membeli aset dan menyuntik modal dalam institusi kewangannya supaya kembali bernafas dan seterusnya menggerakkan kembali sistem kewangannya yang hampir lumpuh.
Bahagian Rencana Utusan Malaysia 24/9/08
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
How We Got Here: It's Housing, Stupid
by Chris Isidore
Thursday, September 18, 2008provided by
Thursday, September 18, 2008provided by
The Wall Street crisis has been caused by plunging housing prices. So despite the billions of dollars being thrown at the problem, experts say more trouble lies ahead.
The nation's financial system is in the midst of a massive shakeup and many on Wall Street and in Washington are pointing fingers and looking for someone to blame.
But in the end, it all comes back to one issue - housing.
| More from CNNMoney.com: • CNNMoney.com Market Meltdown Coverage • Why This (Still) Isn't a Recession • What AIG's Troubles Mean for Your Insurance |
Earlier this decade, it was much easier to get a mortgage. Home prices soared about 85% from 1996 through 2006 in inflation-adjusted dollars, creating a bubble.
Then the bubble popped. And the fallout isn't over yet, experts say.
In the past two weeks, the government took over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America.
If all that weren't enough, the Federal Reserve announced late Tuesday night that it was loaning $85 billion to insurer American International Group.
None of this would have happened if the housing market had not imploded, leaving all these firms with staggering losses from their investments tied to mortgages.
"These institutions, which weathered all kinds of calamities before, including depressions, are being knocked out," said Lakshman Achuthan, the managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. "It's a testament to the significance of the problem we have here."
Thus, experts agree that there are likely to be future shocks to the financial system until the housing market finally hits bottom.
Even Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the administration's point man in the many rescue discussions of the past month, admits this.
"The housing correction poses the biggest risk to our economy," Paulson said the day he announced the Fannie and Freddie seizure. "Our economy and our markets will not recover until the bulk of this housing correction is behind us."
The Problem of Falling Home Prices
But because of the depth of the housing problems, it may take a long time before real estate prices head higher again. Here's why.
Home prices, while sharply off from the 2006 peaks, are still high in comparison to long-term gains in income, rents or overall prices, suggesting that they still have a way to fall, according to experts.
The reason housing is wreaking havoc even on insurers like AIG and big investment banks, who do not make mortgage loans, is that during the boom, trillions of dollars of mortgages were packaged together into securities that promised to pay investors with the proceeds of those loan payments.
Those securities paid better rates than other types of assets during the boom years. So many investors from around the globe poured as much money as they could into those securities.
Faced with this demand, lenders starting making more loans to riskier borrowers, including people who might not be able to afford their mortgage payments in the future and even many with no proof of income.
When prices were rising, this wasn't a problem. The risk of loan foreclosure or default was limited because many homeowners were able to sell their house for more than they owed and make a profit.
But once prices topped out and began falling, loan defaults and foreclosures started shooting higher as homeowners found it more difficult to sell their house. This created problems not just for subprime borrowers but even for those with good credit and income.
When foreclosures rose, the value of the various types of securities tied to mortgages started to fall, causing huge losses up and down Wall Street. It also made banks less eager to extend credit because of the risks involved.
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A Downward Spiral
This credit crunch in of itself slowed the economy, leading to job losses and more defaults, feeding a downward spiral that has been difficult to stop.
"A really bad situation -- a home price bubble bursting -- was made significantly worse when the recession began," said Achuthan. "Now we have to let this thing play out."
Some experts even argue that the steps being taken to rescue firms like AIG could make a recovery in housing and the broader economy more difficult, as financial firms and investors become more reluctant to lend money.
"We are certainly taking credit and squeezing it tighter and tighter," said Kevin Giddis, managing director of investment bank Morgan Keegan. "Housing needs buyers. Buyers need credit."
Achuthan said that even though rates for mortgages and other types of loans have fallen in the last two weeks, those loans are becoming more difficult for many consumers and businesses to get because banks are severely tightening their lending standards.
And if housing prices do fall further, that will only cause more losses in the financial sector and perhaps more failures of banks, insurers and securities firms.
"I would hesitate to say the worst is behind us," Achuthan said.
So even with perhaps hundreds of billions of tax dollars going to AIG, Fannie and Freddie, one expert said the only real solution to the housing problem is for the correction in housing to finish running its course.
"We want home prices to return to normal," said Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and author of the upcoming book "Bailout Nation."
"Until that happens, you can throw as much money at the market as you want at the situation....and it ain't going to make any difference," Ritholtz said.
Copyrighted, CNNMoney. All Rights Reserved.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Wall Street in turmoil
Wall Street in turmoil
By Francesco Guerrera in London, Krishna Guha in Washington and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 14 2008 23:48 Last updated: September 15 2008 10:24
Wall Street was in turmoil on Monday after Lehman Brothers said it would file for bankruptcy protection and Merrill Lynch agreed a $50bn takeover by Bank of America.
BofA’s bold bid for Merrill came as the world’s top banks abandoned efforts to save Lehman and set out to build a firewall against further financial chaos with a $70bn liquidity pool to support other vulnerable institutions.
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The moves capped a weekend of high drama that could lead to one of the most radical reshapings in Wall Street history and set the scene for a volatile day on global capital markets.
The Federal Reserve said it was making it easier for financial institutions to access Fed liquidity by easing terms on its borrowing facilities and accepting a much wider range of assets as collateral. The Fed meets to decide on interest rates on Tuesday.
It widened the set of assets eligible as collateral for loans of Treasuries to include all investment grade paper, and raised the size of these Treasury loans to $200bn.
The Fed also suspended rules that prohibit banks from using deposits to fund their investment banking subsidiaries.
The weekend’s dramatic events undermined confidence in financial stocks across Europe. Banks and insurance companies were the heaviest fallers on Monday while gold prices jumped higher as investors sought the safety of the precious metal.
The Markit iTraxx Crossover index, which measures the cost of insuring European junk-rated credit derivatives, widened 17 per cent on Monday to 640 basis points as the likelihood of defaults was perceived to be higher.
Monday’s market reaction will be closely watched by regulators and banking executives to gauge investor sentiment towards the credit crunch that has wreaked havoc on the financial sector for more than a year.
BofA’s rapid U-turn, which saw it abandon talks to buy Lehman and move to Merrill in the space of a few hours, will throw the spotlight on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The two could soon become the only independent investment banks in the US.
Merrill’s board voted on Sunday night to approve BofA’s takeover all-stock bid, which was pitched at $29 a share. That is a premium of 70 per cent on Friday’s closing price of $17.05. Merrill’s shares have fallen nearly 70 per cent this year.
The sudden and dramatic turn of events came at the end of a weekend which saw top Wall Street executives locked in increasingly desperate talks over the future of Lehman and the state of the financial sector with Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, and Tim Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve.
However, bankers familiar with the talks said a rescue plan for Lehman had been seriously undermined after suitors Barclays of the UK and BofA, had walked away. Barclays pulled out in the afternoon after the US government refused to provide a guarantee to enable Lehman to continue trading until a deal had been completed.
Lehman, a 158-year-old firm that is one of the biggest names on Wall Street, said during the New York night that it would file for bankruptcy.
The filing is likely to cause thousands of job losses among Lehman’s 25,000-strong staff. On Sunday night a number of employees were seen leaving Lehman’s Manhattan headquarters with boxes stacked with their possessions, stationery and even some paintings.
In a separate move, regulators had prepared the ground for a Lehman bankruptcy by asking its derivatives counterparties to settle trades between themselves in a special trading session in the afternoon.
Merrill’s decision to enter talks with BofA, which has long coveted its rival’s large retail brokerage business, came after it became apparent that Lehman’s woes could spread to the rest of the investment banking sector in the coming weeks.
John Thain, Merrill's chief executive, who was attending the Lehman crisis talks, approached some rivals asking them whether they would be interested in bidding for his firm, according to people close to the situation.
Morgan Stanley, BofA and some foreign banks were contacted but many of them declined to pursue the talks because they had insufficient time to pore over Merrill’s complex trading books, they added. Merrill, Morgan Stanley and BofA declined to comment.
A takeover of Merrill would be a victory for Ken Lewis, BofA’s chief executive, who has long wanted to combine the lender’s commercial banking operations with Merrill’s army of retail brokers.
However, a deal could saddle BofA with more troubled assets. The bank bought the stricken mortgage-lender Countrywide and a purchase of Merrill would force it to clean up the bank’s trading books, which have already cost Merrill some $52bn in writedowns and credit losses.
Mr Thain, the former Goldman Sachs executive and former head of the New York Stock Exchange who joined Merrill last year after the departure of Stan O’Neal, is almost certain to leave the firm if the BofA takeover goes through.
He is a fervent supporter of John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, and some experts expect him to seek a political career.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
By Francesco Guerrera in London, Krishna Guha in Washington and Greg Farrell in New York
Published: September 14 2008 23:48 Last updated: September 15 2008 10:24
Wall Street was in turmoil on Monday after Lehman Brothers said it would file for bankruptcy protection and Merrill Lynch agreed a $50bn takeover by Bank of America.
BofA’s bold bid for Merrill came as the world’s top banks abandoned efforts to save Lehman and set out to build a firewall against further financial chaos with a $70bn liquidity pool to support other vulnerable institutions.
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mp.setVariable("CHANNEL_URL", "http://www.ft.com/ukdailyview")
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mp.write('flashParentHTML');}loadMavenPlayer();
The moves capped a weekend of high drama that could lead to one of the most radical reshapings in Wall Street history and set the scene for a volatile day on global capital markets.
The Federal Reserve said it was making it easier for financial institutions to access Fed liquidity by easing terms on its borrowing facilities and accepting a much wider range of assets as collateral. The Fed meets to decide on interest rates on Tuesday.
It widened the set of assets eligible as collateral for loans of Treasuries to include all investment grade paper, and raised the size of these Treasury loans to $200bn.
The Fed also suspended rules that prohibit banks from using deposits to fund their investment banking subsidiaries.
The weekend’s dramatic events undermined confidence in financial stocks across Europe. Banks and insurance companies were the heaviest fallers on Monday while gold prices jumped higher as investors sought the safety of the precious metal.
The Markit iTraxx Crossover index, which measures the cost of insuring European junk-rated credit derivatives, widened 17 per cent on Monday to 640 basis points as the likelihood of defaults was perceived to be higher.
Monday’s market reaction will be closely watched by regulators and banking executives to gauge investor sentiment towards the credit crunch that has wreaked havoc on the financial sector for more than a year.
BofA’s rapid U-turn, which saw it abandon talks to buy Lehman and move to Merrill in the space of a few hours, will throw the spotlight on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. The two could soon become the only independent investment banks in the US.
Merrill’s board voted on Sunday night to approve BofA’s takeover all-stock bid, which was pitched at $29 a share. That is a premium of 70 per cent on Friday’s closing price of $17.05. Merrill’s shares have fallen nearly 70 per cent this year.
The sudden and dramatic turn of events came at the end of a weekend which saw top Wall Street executives locked in increasingly desperate talks over the future of Lehman and the state of the financial sector with Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, and Tim Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve.
However, bankers familiar with the talks said a rescue plan for Lehman had been seriously undermined after suitors Barclays of the UK and BofA, had walked away. Barclays pulled out in the afternoon after the US government refused to provide a guarantee to enable Lehman to continue trading until a deal had been completed.
Lehman, a 158-year-old firm that is one of the biggest names on Wall Street, said during the New York night that it would file for bankruptcy.
The filing is likely to cause thousands of job losses among Lehman’s 25,000-strong staff. On Sunday night a number of employees were seen leaving Lehman’s Manhattan headquarters with boxes stacked with their possessions, stationery and even some paintings.
In a separate move, regulators had prepared the ground for a Lehman bankruptcy by asking its derivatives counterparties to settle trades between themselves in a special trading session in the afternoon.
Merrill’s decision to enter talks with BofA, which has long coveted its rival’s large retail brokerage business, came after it became apparent that Lehman’s woes could spread to the rest of the investment banking sector in the coming weeks.
John Thain, Merrill's chief executive, who was attending the Lehman crisis talks, approached some rivals asking them whether they would be interested in bidding for his firm, according to people close to the situation.
Morgan Stanley, BofA and some foreign banks were contacted but many of them declined to pursue the talks because they had insufficient time to pore over Merrill’s complex trading books, they added. Merrill, Morgan Stanley and BofA declined to comment.
A takeover of Merrill would be a victory for Ken Lewis, BofA’s chief executive, who has long wanted to combine the lender’s commercial banking operations with Merrill’s army of retail brokers.
However, a deal could saddle BofA with more troubled assets. The bank bought the stricken mortgage-lender Countrywide and a purchase of Merrill would force it to clean up the bank’s trading books, which have already cost Merrill some $52bn in writedowns and credit losses.
Mr Thain, the former Goldman Sachs executive and former head of the New York Stock Exchange who joined Merrill last year after the departure of Stan O’Neal, is almost certain to leave the firm if the BofA takeover goes through.
He is a fervent supporter of John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate, and some experts expect him to seek a political career.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
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